We Are At War
حنا في حالة حرب: التحول من "Pax Americana" لصراعات سيبرانية عالمية
We Are At War: The Shift from Pax Americana to Global Cyber Conflict
TL;DR: The era of a single dominant tech power is over. Geopolitical tensions are driving a new reality where technology is a weapon, a target, and a political lever. From state-sponsored infrastructure sabotage to "establishment-era" hacktivism and professionalized cyber extortion, the digital landscape has become a frontline for systemic global conflict.
The relative peace and prosperity enjoyed by much of the world since 1945 did not happen by accident. It was the result of a deliberate global order—Pax Americana—established by the United States. However, that foundation is shifting. Today, Europe’s strategic dependence on U.S. technology, intelligence, and cybersecurity frameworks is being tested by tectonic geopolitical changes.
We must face a hard truth: we are in the middle of a digital war. In this new era, all technology is political. As entities increase their reliance on digital platforms, they expand their exposure to technical power projection, enabling everything from psychological operations and misinformation to direct infrastructure attacks.
The Rise of State Actors and Critical Infrastructure Targeting
The contemporary threat landscape is no longer defined merely by the whims of criminal hackers. It is shaped by state actors who use cyber operations for espionage, signaling, and pre-positioning for future conflict.
Key milestones in this evolution include:
- Persistent Espionage: Campaigns like "Night Dragon" (dating back to the mid-2000s) signaled the shift from opportunistic hacking to long-dwell, state-sponsored industrial espionage against energy and defense firms.
- Infrastructure Pre-positioning: In early 2024, the U.S. dismantled a botnet used by the Chinese state-sponsored group Volt Typhoon. This group was found to have compromised IT networks across the communications, energy, transport, and water sectors.
- Telecom Exploitation: In October 2024, the Salt Typhoon group compromised major telecom networks, gaining access to the communications of both government officials and civilians.
- Stealth Tactics: Recent trends show move away from "noisy" malware toward stealthy backdoors on appliances and virtualization platforms, often exploiting 0-day or n-day vulnerabilities at the network edge.
Hacktivists: From Vigilantes to State-Aligned Bullies
The term "hacktivism" has evolved. It no longer describes fringe collectives with protest messages; we have entered the "establishment" era of hacktivism. These groups now serve as informal extensions of state power, providing governments with plausible deniability.
In 2025, we saw the tangible dangers of this shift:
- Physical Sabotage: In April 2025, attackers (later linked to Russia) seized control of the Bremanger dam in Norway, opening floodgates and releasing 500 liters of water per second.
- Infrastructure Breaches: The Canadian Centre for Cyber Security reported breaches by hacktivists into water, energy, and agricultural systems, where they manipulated water pressure and temperature levels.
- Cognitive Warfare: Groups like NoName057(16) and Predatory Sparrow use DDoS attacks and data destruction not for ransom, but to erode public confidence in institutions and broadcast political narratives.
Cyber Extortion: The "Big Gorilla"
Despite increased law enforcement pressure, cyber extortion remains a dominant threat. Operations like ENDGAME have successfully dismantled servers and led to arrests in Ukraine and Armenia, yet the ecosystem remains resilient.
The Security Navigator 2026 documents a staggering 139,373 incidents and 19,053 confirmed breaches. Three trends define this space:
- Rising Victim Counts: Even with better defensive controls, the number of victims continues to rise.
- Basic Failures: Most breaches still result from "predictable and defeatable" methods—phishing, stolen credentials, and unpatched systems.
- A Professionalized Ecosystem: Cybercrime has matured into a decentralized network of affiliates and service providers, often operating out of "safe-haven" states that shield them from international law.
Conclusion: A Societal Approach to Defense
Cybersecurity is no longer a technical nuisance to be patched away; it is inseparable from societal security. Organizations must move beyond mere prevention and prioritize resilience. This includes live-fire rehearsals for recovery and transparent post-breach introspection.
However, individual businesses cannot repel state-aligned adversaries alone. Defending against these threats requires a wartime level of collaboration between the public and private sectors. We must secure not just our systems, but the collective trust and cohesion of the societies that depend on them.
Source: https://thehackernews.com/2026/03/we-are-at-war.html Based on research from Security Navigator 2026 by Orange Cyberdefense.
